What will the RBA do next?
Market-implied probabilities for Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions, derived from ASX interbank futures settlement prices. See whether markets expect the RBA to cut, hold, or hike the cash rate at upcoming meetings.
Next meeting forecast
What does this mean for me?
Rate path outlook
Expected cash rate path with uncertainty bands.
Markets price uncertainty, not a single forecast. Individual meetings may show cuts and hikes even when the overall path is stable.
| Meeting date | Modal outcome | Expected rate | Probabilities |
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Mortgage impact calculator
Estimate how potential RBA cash rate changes could affect your home loan repayments. Enter your loan details and see projections based on current market pricing of future rate decisions.
Add each loan, choose variable or fixed, and set any fixed expiry.
Data sources & methodology
Futures quotes
Methodology
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About RBA Rate Watch
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the official cash rate, which directly influences variable mortgage rates, savings rates, and broader economic conditions across Australia. The RBA Board meets roughly eight times per year to decide whether to cut, hold, or hike the cash rate in response to inflation, employment, and economic growth data.
RBA Rate Watch uses ASX (Australian Securities Exchange) interbank futures settlement prices to calculate market-implied probabilities for each upcoming RBA rate decision. Unlike economist surveys or media commentary, these probabilities reflect where institutional investors are actually putting money, providing a real-time, market-based view of rate expectations.
Probabilities are calculated using meeting-month decomposition with ACT/ACT daycount convention. Data is sourced from ASX end-of-day settlements and updated daily. This tool is free to use and does not provide financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current RBA cash rate?
The current RBA official cash rate target is displayed at the top of this page. The cash rate is the interest rate on unsecured overnight loans between banks and is the primary tool the RBA uses to implement monetary policy in Australia.
When is the next RBA meeting?
The next scheduled RBA Board meeting date is shown in the forecast card above. The RBA typically meets eight times per year (roughly every six weeks), with meeting dates published on the RBA website at the start of each year. A countdown to the next decision is displayed alongside the meeting date.
How are RBA rate probabilities calculated?
Probabilities are derived from ASX interbank futures using meeting-month decomposition with ACT/ACT daycount convention. The implied rate for each meeting is extracted from the futures settlement price, and the difference from the current cash rate is decomposed into discrete rate move scenarios (hold, cut 25bp, cut 50bp, hike 25bp, hike 50bp). Moves are capped at 50 basis points per meeting.
Will the RBA cut interest rates?
The probability of a rate cut at the next meeting is shown in the forecast card above. Market-implied probabilities change daily based on economic data releases, inflation expectations, and global financial conditions. Check the history chart to see how rate expectations have shifted over recent weeks.
How does the RBA cash rate affect my mortgage?
When the RBA changes the cash rate, banks typically pass the change through to variable rate home loans within days. A 25 basis point (0.25%) cut on a $500,000 loan over 30 years reduces monthly repayments by roughly $75. Use the mortgage impact calculator on this page to estimate how rate changes could affect your specific loans.
How accurate are market predictions of RBA rate decisions?
Market-implied probabilities have historically been a strong predictor of RBA decisions, particularly for the next one to two meetings. Futures markets aggregate the views of thousands of institutional participants and tend to reflect available information efficiently. However, unexpected economic data or global shocks can shift expectations rapidly.
What are ASX interbank futures?
ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures are exchange-traded derivatives that settle at the average RBA cash rate for a given calendar month. Because the settlement price reflects the average cash rate across the month, the price of a futures contract spanning an RBA meeting embeds the market's expectation of whether the rate will change at that meeting.
How often are the probabilities updated?
Probabilities are updated daily using ASX end-of-day interbank futures settlement prices. The freshness indicator at the top of the page shows when the data was last updated. During periods of high market volatility, intraday movements may differ from the end-of-day values shown here.
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